{"id":554,"date":"2023-04-13T01:01:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-12T16:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/niveditakhandekar.com\/?p=554"},"modified":"2024-07-31T00:17:46","modified_gmt":"2024-07-30T15:17:46","slug":"below-normal-monsoon-for-uttarakhand-himachal-pradesh-this-year-says-imd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/niveditakhandekar.com\/?p=554","title":{"rendered":"Below normal monsoon for Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh this year, says IMD"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Experts warn of negative impact on Himalayan water systems; Rest of India to get normal rains.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

El Nino conditions are a good predictor of Indian monsoon. (Photo credit: PTI)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n


New Delhi:<\/strong> Close to 50% of the region covering Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand is likely to receive \u2018below normal\u2019 rainfall this monsoon. This, even as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday forecast \u2018normal\u2019 rainfall during the upcoming south-west monsoon season over the country.

The met department has said its prediction for \u2018normal\u2019 showers comes despite El Nino conditions which will prevail this year. According to the IMD, India will receive 83.5 cm rainfall, or 96% (with an error margin of 5 per cent) of the long-period average (LPA). The LPA is taken as 87 cm, based on seasonal rainfall for the period between 1971 and 2020.

While the forecast bodes well for the country as a whole, projections show that close to half the region covered by Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh will receive \u2018below normal\u2019 rainfall in the monsoon months from June to September. Neighbouring Union Territories of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, and the states of Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, are likely to receive \u2018normal\u2019 rainfall, the data shows.

As per the IMD\u2019s frame of reference, rainfall that is less than 90% of the long-period average (LPA) is considered \u2018deficient\u2019, between 90% and 95% \u2018below normal\u2019, between 105% and 110% \u2018above normal\u2019. LPA that\u2019s over 110% is considered \u2018excess\u2019 precipitation.

\u201cAlmost 50% of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh are showing \u2018below normal\u2019 rainfall. (But) This is our first forecast and the picture would be clearer when the detailed, month-wise forecast is issued at the end of May,\u201d IMD director general, Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told News9 Plus.

Expanding on the reason why J&K shows \u2018normal\u2019 rainfall while its neighbours don\u2019t, Mohapatra said, \u201cRainfall in Uttarakhand and southern parts of Himachal Pradesh is due to the easterly winds while in the J&K and Ladakh, it is the westerly winds.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cause for concern\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u2018Below normal\u2019 rainfall for hilly terrain is a likely cause of worry for the impact it will have on the region\u2019s water system. As per a 2018 NITI Aayog report on the Himalayan Springs, \u201cMost of northern India\u2019s river systems originate in the Himalayan region, either through glacial melt or in the form of springs. Springs are the main source of water for millions of people in the Himalayas. Both rural and urban communities depend on springs for meeting their drinking, domestic and agricultural water needs.\u201d

In the Himalayas, the rivers flow in deep valleys while the aquifers that feed them are located some 200-300 metres above. \u201cThe recharge may happen through a small stream and may happen through an open area, where there are no streams and water percolates into the ground. The aquifers start discharging to larger springs, and these feed water into smaller streams and rivers,\u201d said Himanshu Kulkarni, convener of the drafting committee of the NITI Aayog report on Himalayan Springs.

\u201cAny disturbance in the rainfall; [meaning] if there is lesser rainfall, there is lesser recharge. If there is lesser recharge, the aquifers will not saturate enough, which in turn, will lead to depletion in spring flow. That will mean depletion in base flow of the rivers,\u201d Kulkarni explained.

In the Himalayas, the recharge happens by way of summer, monsoon and winter precipitation. But monsoon precipitation is vital and this results in the greatest amount of recharge during the three seasons, he said, adding, \u201cIn an already drying up region such as the Himalayas, you have a further anomaly of rainfall [shortage], which will lead to some very intense consequences.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Nino impact<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

El Nino, a Spanish term, indicates a phenomenon where Pacific Ocean warming occurs near South America and the condition has a negative impact on India\u2019s South-West monsoon. Mohapatra had announced during Tuesday\u2019s press conference that \u201cEl Nino impact will be seen in the second half of the monsoon in India\u201d.

However, not all El Nino years result in poor rains during the monsoon season. IMD data shows that between 1951 and 2022, there have been 15 El Nino years of which six registered \u2018normal\u2019 to \u2018above normal\u2019 rainfall.

(This story first appeared on news9live.com on Apr 13, 2023 and can be read here.<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n


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Experts warn of negative impact on Himalayan water systems; Rest of India to get normal rains. El Nino conditions are a good predictor of Indian monsoon. (Photo credit: PTI) New … <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":556,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-554","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/niveditakhandekar.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/554","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/niveditakhandekar.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/niveditakhandekar.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/niveditakhandekar.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/niveditakhandekar.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=554"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/niveditakhandekar.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/554\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":557,"href":"https:\/\/niveditakhandekar.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/554\/revisions\/557"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/niveditakhandekar.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/556"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/niveditakhandekar.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=554"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/niveditakhandekar.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=554"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/niveditakhandekar.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=554"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}